2024: Crypto Bull or Bear?

In the realm of cryptocurrency, two dominant narratives are currently at odds, leaving many experts perplexed. On one hand, there’s strong optimism buoyed by major institutions gearing up to launch Bitcoin ETFs in the next year and the anticipated halving of Bitcoin’s new supply – a scenario that typically signals bullish trends. Conversely, there’s growing concern about a potential recession in the same timeframe, which could severely impact riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Addressing these conflicting views, expert Raoul Pal presents an analysis suggesting that the feared major crash has already occurred, positioning the market for a potentially significant bull run in 2024. This video explores Pal’s insights on the upcoming ‘Triple Cycle’ in 2024, debunks common recession fears for the next year, and outlines potential scenarios to watch out for.

The Triple Cycle of 2024: A Confluence of Bullish Signals

Pal identifies 2024 as a critical year marked by the convergence of three significant cycles:

1. The Central Bank Debt Refinancing Cycle: Post-2008, governments worldwide refinanced their debts at near-zero interest rates, creating a predictable economic cycle of weakness every four years.
2. The US Presidential Cycle: Coincidentally aligns with the debt refinancing cycle, adding to its impact.
3. The Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Interestingly, it too follows a similar four-year cycle.

These simultaneous cycles, according to Pal, are set to create a powerful bullish environment for cryptocurrencies in 2024.

Dispelling Fears of a 2024 Crash

Pal challenges the prevalent notion of an impending crash in 2024. He argues that markets, especially technology and crypto, are forward-looking and had already priced in a recession last year. This foresight led to their recovery, contrary to real-time indicators like the Russell 2000 and oil that are reacting to current economic slowdowns. The lagging indicators, like real estate, are yet to fully reflect these changes, leading to a disparity in market perceptions.

The “What If We’re Wrong?” Scenarios

Despite his bullish stance, Pal acknowledges potential risks:

1. Hyperinflation: Arising from excessive manipulation of money, though he deems it unlikely due to the complexities of hyperinflating a reserve currency.
2. Sticky Inflation: Persistently high interest rates could be troublesome, but unlikely to deter investors in high-ROI sectors like technology.
3. Another Recession-Led Sell-Off in Crypto: While possible, Pal believes it wouldn’t be as severe as the pandemic-induced crash of 2021.

In conclusion, while there are narratives suggesting both a bullish and bearish future for crypto, Pal leans towards a bullish outlook, primarily due to the alignment of key economic and crypto-specific cycles. However, he doesn’t dismiss potential risks and advises vigilance in monitoring the market for any signs of these “what if” scenarios.